Global Warming Increases Hurricanes. Or Does It……..

Will global warming increase hurricane activity? Two studies published in the last week arrived at opposite conclusions.

Well Imagine that, two studies don’t agree. Let’s take a look at what they say, and who studied what.

A link between warmer sea surface temperatures and increased North Atlantic hurricane activity “has been quantified for the first time,” according to a study by University College London researchers that was published in Nature (Jan. 30). They claim to have associated a 0.5 degree Celsius increase in sea surface warming with a 40 percent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity during 1996-2005 as compared to the average activity during 1950-2000.

“The scientists who have linked global warming to stronger storms said the study makes sense, and is, if anything, just repeating and refining what they have already said,” the Associated Press reported (Jan. 30).

But the study result isn’t surprising considering it was derived from a computer model that included only two variables — sea surface temperature and atmospheric wind field — which the researchers claim explain about 75 percent of the variance in Atlantic hurricane activity between 1965-2005. They claim to have teased out the association between sea surface temperature and hurricane activity by statistically removing the influence of wind from the model.

University College London. Strike one.

The scientists who have linked global warming to stronger storms said the study makes sense. Strike two

The study only included two out of at least five variables. Strike three.

The other side.

The other hurricane study, published in Geophysical Research Letters (Jan. 23) and not widely reported by the media, comes from climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The NOAA researchers compared sea surface temperatures with hurricanes that made U.S. landfall — the most reliable hurricane measurement over the long-term, according to the researchers. They found a slight decrease in the trend of landfalling hurricanes with warmer sea surface temperatures.

“This paper uses observational data to demonstrate that the attribution of the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to global warming is premature and that global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States,” the researchers concluded.

As leading hurricane forecaster William Gray of Colorado State University put it, “Meteorologists who study tropical cyclones have no valid physical theory as to why hurricane frequency or intensity would necessarily be altered by small amounts (plus/minus 0.5 degrees Centigrade) of global mean temperature change.”

Here’s two points in the first sentence.

Not widely reported, and it comes from NOAA. (not known for being against the global warming BS)

They found a slight decrease in hurricanes with the warmer temps.

And a leading hurricane forecaster, William Gray, says there is no valid reason as to why .05 degrees centigrade would have any effect.

Here’s some more on this.

And, of course, Al Gore learned this lesson the hard way. His attempt in “An Inconvenient Truth” to link manmade greenhouse gas emissions with the Hurricane Katrina tragedy was sound[ly] rejected by a British High Court judge who succinctly ruled that, “In scene 12 Hurricane Katrina and the consequent devastation in New Orleans is ascribed to global warming. It is common ground that there is insufficient evidence to show that.”

Poor Algore, wrong again. And we even get John McCain to admit to pandering to the global warming crowd.

As Sen. John McCain emerged from the Florida Republican primary as the Republican front runner, Politico.com observed that “After hitting it in most every appearance he made in New Hampshire and Michigan, John McCain now rarely brings up the topic of global warming.” In talking to reporters after a campaign event in West Palm Beach, McCain said, “I try to bring it up in areas that I think that it is of great import to people.”

And they even mention SwampWoman’s opinion. (I hope it’s her opinion)

Given the scientific evidence, it’s quite easy to understand why Floridians might not think that alleged global warming-hurricane link is of great import.

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2 Responses

  1. My opinion about global warming is “bring it on!” Canadians need to live in a tropical paradise too.

  2. Yeah, that Gorebal Warming took out the electricity and phone lines for about 3 days. I can fix the electricity part, and not having a phone for a while is no big deal. But No Internet!! Nice to be back…….

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